The Arakan Army (AA) has emerged as the most effective revolutionary armed group in Myanmar in terms of military strength, governance, and political influence, while also expanding its control over most of Rakhine State and growing in geopolitical importance across the region, the U.S.-based Jamestown Foundation has assessed.
According to the Washington, D.C.-based research organization, the AA's military capabilities and territorial control have expanded significantly since Operation 1027 began in October 2023, contributing to a fundamental shift in Myanmar's military balance.
The Jamestown Foundation said the AA currently controls 14 of the 17 townships in Rakhine State, as well as Paletwa Township in Chin State. Its growing control over areas along the border with Bangladesh has also made the AA an influential force with a direct impact on regional security and border-related affairs, the foundation assessed.
The AA is believed to have around 40,000 regular troops and has become one of the largest non-state armed groups in South and Southeast Asia, according to the report.
The Jamestown Foundation said the AA's rise has been driven not only by military successes, but also by its ability to build administrative mechanisms, expand alliances, and effectively utilize media platforms.
The AA has also sought to establish judicial and law enforcement institutions, as well as education and healthcare services. The report further said that the group has been working to strengthen relations with minority communities in Rakhine State.
Militarily, the AA has expanded its operations beyond its efforts to control all of Rakhine State. After taking control of Paletwa Township in 2024, the group has expanded military activities into Ayeyarwady, Bago, Magway, and Sagaing regions since 2025, according to the Jamestown Foundation.
The foundation assessed that the expansion is likely aimed at creating a security buffer zone for Rakhine State and enabling the AA to reach areas where the military regime's defense-related factories are located.
The AA has also established alliances with ethnic armed organizations, including the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). Through these relationships, the AA has gained military experience as well as access to weapons, ammunition, and operational expertise, the report said.
Since the 2021 military coup, the AA has provided military training, logistical support, and other forms of assistance to at least 23 revolutionary organizations across Myanmar, according to the Jamestown Foundation.
The foundation also assessed that the AA's effective use of Rakhine-language and Burmese-language media, as well as social media platforms, has helped it widely promote its military and political achievements and strengthen public trust and support.
The AA's geopolitical importance has also been steadily increasing. Most of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Rakhine State are located in areas controlled by the AA, while the group also controls Paletwa Township, a strategically important area for India's Kaladan project.
As a result, the safe implementation of infrastructure projects by China and India may increasingly depend on the AA's position and cooperation, the Jamestown Foundation assessed.
Furthermore, with more than 1.3 million Rohingya refugees currently residing in Bangladesh and the AA now sharing a direct border with Bangladesh, the group is also likely to play an increasingly important role in issues related to the Rohingya, border security, and cross-border trade, the report said.
According to the Jamestown Foundation, within 17 years of its establishment, the AA has achieved military, administrative, and political gains that even some ethnic armed organizations with decades of history have yet to attain. By building not only military capabilities but also a sustainable governance system, the AA has emerged as a model for other revolutionary forces in Myanmar, the foundation said.
Photo: AA Info Desk.
